The Art of the Squeal
Trump signals he's ready to compromise on tariffs with China before trade talks even start, violating the cardinal rule of never negotiating with yourself.
President Donald Trump and his acolytes often claim that the commander-in-chief is also the dealmaker-in-chief – a master negotiator. They cite his 1987 book, The Art of the Deal, as evidence of his negotiating prowess and ability to move mountains in both business and politics.
A rule every negotiator knows: you don’t negotiate with yourself. You don’t anticipate the other party’s move and make concessions before they’ve expressed a demand or objection. Doing so gives away leverage, signals weakness, and often results in conceding more than intended.
And yet, that’s precisely what Trump does – repeatedly.
This morning, the Trump administration signaled its willingness to lower tariffs levied against China in a trade war that threatens to derail both countries’ economies and destabilize global commerce. According to The Wall Street Journal, the de-escalation wouldn’t eliminate tariffs but could reduce them from the current 145 percent to somewhere between 50 and 60 percent.
“President Trump has been clear: China needs to make a deal with the United States of America. When decisions on tariffs are made, they will come directly from the president. Anything else is just pure speculation,” White House spokesman Kush Desai told the Journal.
Although the administration signaled a willingness to lower the tariffs, Trump had yet to make a final decision as of this writing.
This is becoming a familiar pattern. Trump shocked the world on April 2 when he announced sweeping tariffs – a universal 10 percent tariff on all countries, with levies on some nations reportedly reaching as high as 90 percent. When China retaliated by increasing tariffs on U.S. goods, Trump raised the duties on Chinese products to 125 percent and eventually to 145 percent.
A week later, on April 9, Trump paused the tariffs on all countries except China for 90 days. Two days later, he exempted most electronic and computer goods. While floating the idea that tariff revenue could replace U.S. federal income taxes, he and his administration were simultaneously negotiating free-trade and low-tariff deals around the globe.
Defenders say this is classic Trump – The Art of the Deal in action. Start with extreme demands to eventually settle on a moderate, mutually acceptable position.
Except, that’s not what’s happening. Beyond demanding that manufacturing return to the U.S. and that other countries buy more American goods, Trump has offered no clear strategy or pathway for negotiation. That’s typically a prerequisite for serious talks.
When foreign nations pushed back against the tariffs, Trump initially stood firm. But when countries began dumping U.S. securities, which fund federal deficit spending, the administration started to retreat. As soon as the Trump administration encountered real resistance, it folded. Yet Trump cabinet members and spokespeople tried to spin the retreat as a win.
The same self-defeating behavior is evident in his dealings with Ukraine. Before Russia even came to the table, Trump threatened to cut aid to Ukraine, suggested Ukraine would have to cede captured territory, and indicated the U.S. wouldn’t support NATO membership or offer security guarantees. Essentially, the administration preemptively gave the Russians everything they wanted.
They did it again last week. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. was ready to walk away from the Ukraine peace process if a deal couldn’t be struck quickly. In his words, the U.S. would have to “move on.” Once again, the U.S. negotiated with itself – and strengthened Vladimir Putin’s position.
Trump insisted he wouldn’t compromise on tariffs, calling them a cornerstone of his economic and political agenda. He claims tariffs are the answer to America’s problems. But the stock market has slumped, the economy is tilting toward recession, the dollar is weakening, and trade partners are increasingly reluctant to engage. Now, Trump is taking unilateral steps to stop the domestic bleeding and rekindle foreign interest.
In effect, he’s waving a white flag. The world has figured out how to make Trump flinch.
To paraphrase General Norman Schwarzkopf’s remark about Saddam Hussein’s military abilities: Trump is “neither a strategist, nor schooled in the operational arts, nor a tactician, nor a trader, nor a business leader. Other than that, he’s a great negotiator.”
Art of the Deal? More like Art of the Squeal.